Late October - Friend or Foe?

Late October is notorious for being a bear killer.  After a day like today, it can leave one scratching their heads to put any sort of direction on this market.  We detailed in our previous post that the market would be in a consolidation phase until it is able break the negative sentiment to start a serious rally.  The market is currently retesting the lows from two weeks ago and doing so with light volume.  This does not mean we can't drift down to the bottom of the range, but time is running out on the bears. 

Nasdaq Symmetrical Triangle

Nasdaq has been trading in a symmetrical triangle for a few weeks. The thing about symmetrical triangles is that theyt are truly 50/50, because neither the bulls or bears are in control.  The preceding trend is often a good indication of which way the security will ultimately breakout.  Hence, the symmetrical triangle will act as a flag, simply building steam to do a 1 to 1 extension of the preceding move.  Due to the extreme nature of the sell off into this formation, this is simply not an option I am willing to say is on the table.  One of our contributors, Tim Ord has been calling for a cycle market bottom on October 22.  Time will tell if this is able to hold up, but there was a minor bounce on the close today.  Until we get real action with heavy volume, we will stay in this trading range.

Nasdaq Trading Range