Market Making Descent Into July Lows

Even though we have had some strong volatility over the past few days; it has all been within a narrow range.  The charts are sloppy but one thing has not changed; the market is not ready for the move that the bulls are looking for.  Housing data and oil corrupted the market today from the outset, sending it down 240 points on the close.

So far, the Dow has held the 50% retracement level from the July lows to August Highs but this is in jeapordy, especially after today's action.  I am now watching the 12900 area with great interest.  A close below this level would increase the likelihood of a move back to the July lows.  Also, note the perfect backtest of the wedge with Fridays action.  The market violently rejected that price area.