Markets Hitting 38% Retracement Off Bottom

The Dow was solid yesterday and climbed right into the resistance zones we were talking about at 11600/11700.  Now, what we have here is a market that looks like its having trouble at the 38% retracement level from the May highs down to the July lows.  The reason I see trouble is due to the lack of volume that I see in this move.  Anything is possible and they may bring the heat tomorrow and jump this level.  If they do the next area is 12000 and that will be huge resistance.  I think it is pretty good odds that we see a reversal of some sorts here very soon.  What I do not have on this graph below is a horizontal line at the January and March lows.  We are banging up against those levels right now making it even more unlikely that we get through here.

The S&P 500 is sporting the same type of resistance.  Many are going to watch this very closely and a jump of this level will have it run up to the 50% retracement very fast.