The Ord Oracle 12-23-2008

If you remember in yesterday’s report, we showed you the Seasonal chart of the days around Christmas. This chart showed that the day before Christmas was up 74% of the time and tomorrow is the day before Christmas. Also remember for the 5 days after Christmas had a high percentage of being up days. On previous reports we showed that the SPY should find support at either 87, 85 or worst case scenario at 81. It appears the 87 range will hold and (because of bullish Seasonality) the market should start working higher tomorrow. Also notice that the last four day retracement has been coming on reduced volume and suggest this pull back was of the consolidation nature and a bullish sign. Our intermediate term target to upside is the gap level at the 110 range on SPY which may be hit in March or April. Long SPX on 12/2/08 at 848.81.

On 4/2, we Bought ASTM at 1.92, Biotech group. Long POWR at 13.70 on 12/14/07.

The Commitment of Traders report (COT) remains very bullish for the intermediate term and GDX McClellan Summation index is moving higher and is also bullish. Therefore, if there is a pull back here it should be relative mild. Above is the Canadian Gold index ($sptgd). We where looking for resistance near the 300 level on $SPTGD and this level was reached a few days ago. Also RSI got near 70 when this index was at the 300 level which implied that area had resistance. Support comes near 225 range and would also complete the double Right Shoulder pattern of this potential head and Shoulders bottom we have been talking about. Also notice on the chart above that MACD has made a lower high and Price has made a higher high and is a negative divergence. We have pointed out in the past on the chart above when these negative divergences have occurred and in most cases have produced a pull back in this index. The 225 level would be a good area to add to or add new gold stock positions. We like AZK, RGLD and HMY. Sold PMU on 2/29/08 at 1.20, bought at .81 for gain of 48%. Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. We are long PLM at 2.77 on 1/22/08. We are holding NXG, purchased at 3.26. We are also holding CDE (average long at 2.77 (doubled our position on 9/12/08 at 1.46). We are holding a long term position in KGC at 6.07 and NXG at 2.26. We are long the XAU at 162.05 on 12/18/07. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com