Al's blog

The stock market has taken the term sell off to an entirely knew dimension.  The year of '08 is set to go down as one of the worst years on record.  It is to the point that even if you wanted to sell, do you really want to do so when the market is sub 8000?  There has been a lot of mention lately of a target on the Dow near the 6,600 level.  I have begun to see this pop up all

The timing of this insider trading investigation against Mark Cuban comes just as the NBA season gets underway.  In 2004, Cuban was an investor in a search engine company named Mamma.com.  The company was having financial troubles and was looking to raise funds by selling shares below market value to investors.  This is

The earnings season continues to bring in more bad news as each company shows signs of being hit by the credit crisis.  Most recently GM has been under increasing fire and as I write this post, she is trading under $3.25 a share.  The only positive note in all of this is the lowering gas prices as a result of the downturn in the economy.

The trading range we are experiencing in the Dow Jones is simply unbearable.  This up and down action has been going on for over a month now and it appears that it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.  The October 10th low on the Dow is still holding up, but the lackluster action near the 9,800 level implies the market could attempt to retest the recent lows. 

Dow Trading Range

The Dow was able to finish up for the week, which is only the second time the Dow has been able to do so in the last 7 tries.  The Dow was able to finish the week out with the highest close since October 13th.  In one of our previous posts, we called for a sideways trading range until the market would make up its mind on which direction it ultimately wanted to breakout.  The Dow unlike the Nasdaq was able to hold its low set on October 10th.  This is a bullish sign as the market was unable to bust the Index down.  Now the only thing left is the top of the trading range near the 9,800 to 10,000 level.  There is no doubt the bulls are going after this level on the very short-term.  The likely c

Late October is notorious for being a bear killer.  After a day like today, it can leave one scratching their heads to put any sort of direction on this market.  We detailed in our previous post that the market would be in a consolidation phase until it is able break the negative sentiment to start a serious rally.  The market is currently retesting the lows from two weeks ago and doing so with light volume.  This does not mean we can't drift down to the bottom of the range, but time is running out on the bears. 

Nasdaq Symmetrical Triangle

In one of our posts last week we discussed the 4 phases of a bear market bottom.  The Dow ran from roughly 7,800 to over 9,800 producing a 25% rally in the Dow in only three trading sessions, thus satisfying the Phase 2 requirement.  Currently we are in phase 3, which will lead to a pull back that gives the impression that the previous swing lows will be broken.    This market bottom is a tough one to call because the phase 2 bounce normally lasts for a few weeks and on some level will change the tone of the market.  Whereas this bounce was a large percentage move in a short period of time.  Odds are we will hold the lows from last week, but will drift sideways between 8,300 and 9,800 until the end

Friday did not provide an up day for the Dow, but we did put in a massive reversal off the lows.  When the market opened down 700 points, I must admit it rocked my foundation.  The market quickly reversed, and then an announcement came out that the Lehman credit default swaps were assessed at pennies on the dollar, and the market begin to tank again.  But late in the afternoon we saw a a bounce from 7900 to 8900 in a matter of hours.  The market did close lower on the day, but Friday's trading activity provided some insight into how quickly the market can produce a dead cat bounce.

Trading requires discipline and a sound trading strategy.  But if you have taken a look at the Dow in the last week, it's the kind of market where any system could be down.  The volatility is so great, it doesn't matter if you are short or long, this market is throwing everyone around like a rag doll.  This market is the kind that will break not only a man's pockets, but his spirit's as well.  This is the time that separates the strong from the weak.  In this post I will explain what will happen in the coming weeks and I hope it brings you peace of mind and resolve during this tumultuous time in our nation.

Phase 1

The markets did what they do best on Friday, and that is sell the news.  In yesterday's update we mentioned that the markets looked like they wanted to go lower first before any rally.  I received a few phone calls with investors telling me that they should buy before the bail out is approved, because the market would explode.  So, I had to give this same speech close to 10 times on

In yesterday's update we mentioned that the Dow was on life support at the 50% retracement level; well, if the Nasdaq's action is any indication today, we are going lower over the short-term.  Many traders and analysts were saying that Tuesday's rally was the beginning of a bull market, but any technician could see this dead cat bounce a mile away.  The market basically had two inside da

The Dow was able to put up a good fight yesterday with a 400+ point rally.  And today the bulls were not ready to give back any of the gains.  So, where do we go from here?  There are a number of people out there including Loud Dobbs who are ready to say that there is no need for a bailout because the market had one good day.  Well in my opinion, a one day bounce does not equat

Dow Breaks 50% Retracement from March '03 lows

Bring it on September

September brings about the fall season and sell offs in the stock market.  If you read the stock almanac, it has some grim numbers for September.  However, during a Presidential Election Year, the S&P generally bottoms in September and finishes the year out strongly.  We are also in the 8th year of the 10 year cycle, which has finished up 10 out

The month of August was not a great one. I finished up $449 dollars, but for only using 10k per trade, it’s not all that bad.

The stock market was all over the place today.  The morning brought out the bears and we were able to make a quick $200 bucks.  Then the market went flat going into the 11 am reversal time and we ended up giving back the majority of our gains.  I was barely able to stay in the black going into lunch.  Then the golds and energy stocks made their late day move and we were able to capitalize on this strength. 

Total Gains for the day: $308.01