tim_ord's blog

October 9, 2007 marked the top in the market.  Taking that high and counting the days to the next low and then taking a 38.2 of those days and adding the days out to the future have found important turns days in the market plus or minus two days.  We have marked on the chart those turn dates.  From the October 2007 high to the March 2009 low took 355 days.  Taking 38.2% of 3

Big divergences between Baltic Dry Index and SPX have lead to intermediate term trend changes.  The current divergence is a negative divergence where the SPX made higher highs and Baltic Dry index made lower highs and suggests that the SPX is heading to an intermediate term decline.

Below is the daily SPY.  Monday’s big down gap day broke below the previous two week lows on increased volume and implies a valid break to the downside.   Normally on these valid breaks to the downside the market will attempt to rally back and attempt to fill the gap.  The gap formed between 101 to 99 on the SPY.  Sometimes the market just inters the gap and sometime

The Spy appears to be drawing a bearish “Broadening Top” that may be close to completing.   The QQQQ is also drawing a bearish pattern and this pattern appears to be drawing a “Three Drives to Top” pattern.  This pattern has a deep retracement off of second top that retraces at least

Normally the VIX bottoms when SPY tops (see blue arrows).  The VIX bottomed on 7/24 and since then the SPY was worked higher.  The MACD and Full Stochastics on the VIX both have gave buy signals and implies the VIX Should work higher wh

Market is at the pinnacle area for a reversal on a continuation move up.  The current price on the SPX is where the 200 day EMA, January high and Downtrend line from the May 2008 top comes in.  To get through this resistance zone, the market should produce a Sign of Strength (SOS) which is strong price move and big volume.  We got the strong price move but big volume is not present

The current Head and Shoulders pattern should have symmetry, if it has two left Shoulders then there should be two Right Shoulders.  The first Right shoulder came in early July and current rally may be forming a second Right Shoulder.  There is a gap between 7/1 and 7/2 near 91 and a rally to that area on lighter volume would be an ideal situation to form the second Right Shoulder and co

Welcome to “Weird Wally Wednesday” (in honor of Don Wolanchuk who first pointed this time frame out).  Weird Wally Wednesday is the Wednesday before option expiration week and on this day and the next couple of days, the market has know to do unusually moves.  Therefore expect the unexpected from today in

Over the last couple of weeks there have been several divergences showing up.  Annual new highs new lows ($NYHL) made lower highs as well NYSE McClellan Oscillator  made lower highs as Spy made higher highs.   The NYSE McClellan Summation index did not confirm the breakout of J

Below is an interesting chart.  The blue chart inside the SPX chart is the ratio of the Nasdaq volume compared to the NYSE volume.  When Nasdaq volume surges compared to NYSE volume then a pull back is anticipated in the S&P.   Over the last couple of days the Nasdaq Volume compared to NYSE Volume surged to a new three year high.

In our view the Elliott wave count for the NDX is relative clear.  Notice that the smaller Elliott Waves break down into five count patterns and suggests the larger waves should also.  It appears to us that NDX is forming the 4th wave now and once complete then Wave 5 down should start and most lik

Partnering with mysmp.com, Tim Ord is now offering his subscription service with a FREE 30 DAY TRIAL.  Additionally, for a limited time only, mysmp.com has negotiated an additional discount for our audience.  This offer is only for a short term so lock your rates in NOW.

Partnering with mysmp.com, Tim Ord is now offering his subscription service with a FREE 30 DAY TRIAL.  Additionally, for a limited time only, mysmp.com has negotiated an additional discount for our audience.  This offer is only for a short term so lock your rates in NOW.

In wave labeled in blue the larger Elliott wave count down from the October 2007 top.  The wave labeled in red is the smaller wave count and it appears that wave four (in red) has started and should find resistance near 74 (the previous low).   Once wave four (red) is completed then wave five (red) down should

We did think a low is being made (or has been made) on the SPY (and SPX), however, we are being careful in that Obama’s speech tonight could put volatility in the market tomorrow.  The RSI did hit 30 when the Stochastics was below 20 and a bullish