tim_ord's blog

The rally on the SPY from the recent low was accompanied on lighter volume and shows upside energy was decreasing and short term bearish sign. On June 11 the SPY tested the gap level that was created on 4/16 on higher volume. Higher volume tests of gaps suggests the gap will be tested again at some point. Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) is a momentum indicator and this indicator is moving down and suggests the momentum of the market is down for now. Option expiration week normally has a bullish bias and this week is option expiration week.  We don’t see a safe trade for the moment. Either SPY tests the previous low of 6/12 on lighter volume and see +800 or more downtick closing to create a bullish signal or market rallies to 6/6 high and gap level near 140 and test gap on lighter volume and see uptick closing near +900 range. Since market is between these levels, we are staying flat for now.

It appears a possible “Selling Climax” occurred on 6/6. a “Selling Climax” is a big percentage volume increase day compared to the days around it. June 6 volume looks like it increased near 40% compared to the day before volume. Usually these big increase volume days stops the market trend cold. A bullish sign develops when the “Selling Climax” low is tested on lighter volume and then closes above the “Selling Climax” low. This condition materialized yesterday. Also notice that this bullish sign is developing around the support trend line (Red trend line). There are some things wrong with the market such as the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) trending and implies the momentum of the market is down and the Summation index so far is trending down and suggest the trend is down for now. If the market holds this level for the next several

by Tim Ord

SP 500 and Gold Market Analysis for 05/27/2008
by Tim Ord

For 30 to 90 days horizons:  Flat.
Monitoring purposes XAU: LONG XAU on 12/18/07 at 162.05.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat