Kondratieff Wave - 54 Year Business Cycle

History of the Kondratieff Wave

The Kondratieff Wave was developed by Nikolai D. Kondratieff, a Russian economist, who discovered a 50-54 year business cycle in the United States. Kondratieff was attempting to prove that within capitalism there is an inevitable long down wave in the economy. Stalin wanted to prove that communism was better, because it did not have corrections or recessions, rather it just continued higher infinitely. Kondratieff believed that there was about a 20-year upward move in an economy when an economy would expand. Eventually, as inflationary pressure took hold, the economy would have a flatting plateau period of 7-10 years followed by a 20-year decline. He felt that this Kondratieff Wave was a direct refection of a country's social fabric. As Kondratieff continued to do his research, he noticed that out of depression, an economy would be the beneficiary of cheap money and cheap labor. A key note to remember is that Joseph Stalin, charged Kondratieff to come up with a theory that would discount capitalism, while Kondratieff's theory showed that out of recessions, economies would return stronger than before. Kondratieff paid dearly for his criticism of Stalin and the communist model, and was sentenced to prison. Kondratieff was later sentenced to death in 1938 for a number of criticism's of communism and his Kondratieff Wave theory .


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